Comparing Market Cycles on Two Time Frames

by: Radar Wednesday, October 7th, 2009

The AUD/USD is presenting two different market cycles across the 30 and 60 minute charts.  The first indication of this would be not only the different chart pattern alerts but also the slight difference in Initial Trend readings (C and Z).

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The trend on the 30 minute chart is a sideways market cycle (1) and this is exactly the the direction that the Continuation Triangle should be traded within.  The sideways market shows the congestion/consolidation that the triangle requires to develop and be confirmed.  The pattern can break in either direction since there is no prevalent trend.    The trendlines (A and B) are the triggers for entry.  The MACD Histogram can be used to confirm the trendline break which would be an AIM entry (Autochartist Initial Movement).  The slightly higher Initial Trend is indicating a chance of a distribution cycle so the extra confirmation of the MACD Histogram will minimize false breakout entries.

The 60 minute chart has formed a Continuation Rising Wedge and this pattern — as the name suggests — is a trending pattern.  The trend is up (2) but the Initial Trend reading is very low which indicates a stall and possible reversal.  The support of the uptrend line (Y) is the decision level for the trade as it will determine whether an Autochartist Retracement/Correction entry will be taken with the direction of the trend or whether an Autochartist Reversal Trade will be taken if the support is broken.  If the buyers once again step in and carry the pair higher, watch for a potential break up through resistance (X).

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